I have no idea who will prevail in the current screenwriters’ strike. If I have sympathy for a side, it is probably the writers, since they have some valid points, and appear to be marginally less greedy than the networks and the studios.
But it really doesn’t matter who wins that battle. Because that’s not the real battle.
The real question is, do we really care about TV anymore, full stop. The answer is, of course, yes, but perhaps not as much as the studios and the writers’ guild would like to believe.
Because I don’t think network TV is going to be the winner here. Unlike the last strike in 1988, when folks turned to repeats of shows they hadn’t caught the last time around, now we have real alternatives. And we aren’t limited to what the networks, all gamillion of them, want to show or when they want to show it.
In about four to six weeks when the current inventory of new episodes is depleted and we enter the repeat zone, we will get our first glimpse at how the social media explosion could play out.
What will we see? Here’s my prediction:
Netflix will do quite well. Certainly within the current subscriber base as we actually have time to watch old TV shows and movies that we meant to see but didn’t. They *must* have new subscriber campaigns ready. Not like the strike was a big surprise.
We’ll be watching even more online amateur video – long, short, episodic, and everything in between. For amateurs, talented and un-, their moment in the sun. Will everyone be a brilliant success? No. Some of it will be really really really bad (although with shows like Caveman setting the bar…) But we are going to discover some really talented folks online in the next few weeks, and not just comics, pundits and musicians. Much of this material is already there, online, waiting for us to find it. Well, now, we’ve got the time. Carpe diem.
I’ll also be interested in what happens with online product swap services like Swaptree, whose president Greg Boesel I met at Web Inno last night. Not as easy as just paying the fee to Netflix every month, but folks now may be more receptive to the effort required to get started swapping the books, cds and dvds they no longer want for ones they do.
What do you think will happen?
Tags: screenwriters’ strike, social media, netflix, media shift, Swaptree
The title of your post is “Who will win in the writers’ strike?” I think the answer to that question is the American public. If your predictions are correct, perhaps when the networks and the writers realize we don’t need TV nearly as much as we used to, when the strike is over, the quality of programming will significantly increase. Maybe we won’t have to endure shows like Caveman anymore…
I hope so,Alana, I hope so!!
Great post. I’ve really been interested in this topic and I couldn’t agree with you more. We’ve come a long way since 1988 and I think network television will pick up on that in a hurry. I’m also excited about the possible public relations connotations. Any ideas about what might come out of the pr/marketing crisis situation for the networks?
The strike is such a hot topic right now, and I appreciate that you are taking a different approach than some people. Social media is an interesting way to look at it, and I think some definite talent will be discovered from this. It’s funny though because those that are actually in the strike, the writers and the networks, do not seem to be greatly affected, except that they are getting a lot of attention. Those that will be affected (i.e. the undiscovered talent on youTube) did not necessarily have a part in the strike. I would venture to say in a couple of weeks, those undiscovered stars will be calling their writer friends and thanking them.
I found this post very interseting. I have been trying to stay in the loop on this topic as much as possible lately becuase it intriques me. The first thing I find intersting about this topic is how little the media is covering it. It seems that networks are trying to make it seem like less of a deal than it really is. why?
It will be interesting to see who will win, but I do know that the American public loves thier TV, whether its watching it on TV, the day after online or via TiVo they want it. And if I have learned anything about social media this semester it is having what your audience wants when it is convenient for them, otherwise they will go somewhere else to get it. So where will they turn? I don’t know. But I do know if shows begin to get cancelled left and right, or put on hold the public will be frustrated and network business will suffer.
In answer to your question, I would have to agree with Alana. I don’t think that one side will win and one side will lose, but that both sides will have to come to a compromise and the american public will be the only winner. I think both sides have valid arguements, even though I also tend to favor the writers. However, both the writers and the networks could make some changes for the better. I can’t wait to see how this all plays out though.